Artificial intelligence has not destroyed jobs in Germany so far, according to a new study by the Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), the research institute of Germany’s Federal Employment Agency. Workers aged 30 and over in jobs most exposed to AI have actually done better since 2022, while the picture for young people starting out is less clear.
What happened
The IAB compared jobs its researchers classify as heavily exposed to AI with jobs that are less exposed. They tracked how employment in each group has changed since 2022. heise online reports that the more exposed jobs have developed more favourably than the less exposed ones. That runs against the widespread fear that AI would be a Jobkiller, the German word for a technology that wipes out work.
The gap is large for older workers. Among 30 to 39-year-olds, employment growth in AI-exposed occupations was almost 6 percentage points higher than in less exposed ones. For those aged 40 to 64, the difference was around 5 percentage points.
Younger workers are a different story. For people aged 20 to 29, the researchers found a slightly negative link. Full-time employment in heavily AI-exposed jobs fell 1.2 percentage points more than in less exposed jobs. The IAB stresses that this link is not yet statistically significant, so the study does not prove that AI caused the decline.
The institute puts the main blame for the tough market facing young people on the weak economy. IAB researcher Oliver Schlenker said that the economic weakness of recent years above all had contributed to falling employment among young workers, while the influence of AI had probably played a rather minor role overall. He added that jobs held by young employees are generally especially sensitive to economic cycles.
The study did find one possible warning sign. In verarbeitendes Gewerbe, meaning manufacturing, and in occupations that do not usually require a university degree, higher AI exposure among 20 to 29-year-olds goes hand in hand with weaker employment trends. Melanie Arntz, the IAB’s deputy director, summed up the overall finding: “Higher AI exposure does not necessarily mean weaker employment development.” She added that AI still needs to be watched as a factor.
The IAB’s findings match other recent analyses of the German tech job market, heise online notes. Bitkom, the German digital industry association, found that the number of open IT positions has fallen markedly and put this mainly down to the weak economy. According to Bitkom, there is no noticeable loss of IT jobs caused by AI, and most companies do not expect one. The job portal Indeed also recorded a sharp fall in entry-level openings in IT, other knowledge professions and office work, but said its data did not yet show that AI was behind it.
Why it matters if you live in Germany
Plenty of internationals in Germany work in exactly the kinds of jobs people worry about: software, office administration, analysis and other knowledge work. For experienced workers aged 30 and over, the IAB’s data is reassuring. In Germany so far, working in an AI-exposed occupation has been linked to stronger employment growth, not weaker.
The picture is tougher for graduates and early-career workers, including people who have moved to Germany to study and hope to stay on for their first job. Entry-level roles have become harder to find. The IAB, Bitkom and Indeed all point mainly to the economy, though, not to AI. When the economy picks up, hiring for junior roles may recover more than it would if software had permanently replaced those jobs.
Young workers in manufacturing or in non-academic occupations should watch the trend most closely. These are the areas where the IAB found higher AI exposure and weaker employment going together for people in their twenties. The researchers have not yet established cause and effect. Even so, the pattern is worth knowing about if you are choosing training, an Ausbildung (Germany’s vocational training system), or a first job in these sectors.
Anyone job hunting in IT should know that, according to Bitkom, fewer vacancies are on offer than before. Because the main reason is the economy, this is a cyclical squeeze rather than a sign that tech careers in Germany are disappearing.
What to watch next
The key question is whether the small negative effect among 20 to 29-year-olds grows. Right now it is not statistically significant. If later IAB data shows the gap widening and the link becoming significant, that would be the first solid evidence of AI affecting young workers in Germany. Manufacturing and non-academic occupations are where any change is likely to show first.
The other thing to follow is the wider economy. If the main researchers are right that the weak economy, not AI, is holding back junior hiring, a recovery should show up first in more entry-level openings. Watch upcoming figures from Bitkom and Indeed on IT and office vacancies. If junior hiring stays weak after the economy improves, the debate about AI’s role will return. For more coverage of AI and work, visit Mylistingo.
Source: heise online
Sources
- heise online: KI bisher kein Jobkiller in Deutschland, accessed 14 October 2026
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